Thursday, May 20, 2010

Before reading, please see the disclaimer in the 'About Me' section.

The Wilshire 5000 closed at 11,170.00, down from 11,560.00, or 6.84%, since my post on 5/8/10. The Wilshire 5000 has now crossed below the 200-day moving average 2.06% to the downside.  I see this as neutral news, and am looking for the correction to take us a bit lower still.

The Investor's Intelligence Survey was released on Thursday night. This week's reading was 43.8% BULLS, and 24.7% BEARS, for a spread of 19.1%. This is in comparison to a reading of 56.0% BULLS, and 18.7% BEARS, for a spread of 36.0% on May 4th.  I am looking for the BULL reading to cross below 40.0% next week.  Given the chart located here, I would see this as a buying opportunity.

The Volatility Index closed Friday at 45.79, up from 40.95 back on May 8th. This is the third week in a row that we have seen the VIX trade above 35.

Now for the portfolio...
1) Verizon at $27.76, down 14.45% for the year, inclusive of dividends.  As this stock falls, the yield is only rising.  If I were in the business of buying on the way down with this "imaginary portfolio", I would be adding to my position as we speak

2) AT&T closed at $26.00, down .99% for the year, inclusive of dividends.

3) GE closed at $16.26, up by 8.14% for the year, inclusive of dividends.  I see GE's recent move down as another buying sign.

4) TBT, the doubleshort U.S. Treasury ETF closed at $38.81, down by 22.19% since my buy.  Given where we are in the market and the worldwide economy, I suspect the Fed is going to keep rates low for quite some time, thus keeping this ETF down for quite some time.  I will ponder moving out of this position in the time ahead.

5) FXP, the doubleshort China ETF, closed at $48.24, up by 10.96% since my buy, and after a 1:5 reverse split.  I suspect this one is not done moving higher.

6) GOOD closed at $14.63, up by 8.23% since my buy, including the reinvestment of a dividends.  Like I said previously, I think this stock yielding greater than 10% is a gift, and will be buying some in my retirement account in the next week or so.

7) NLY closed at $15.34, down by 10.77% since my buy, inclusive of a reinvested dividends

8) AAPL closed at $237.76 up by 22.71% since my buy.  In more Apple rumor news, some analyst just put a $330 price target on this puppy.  We'll see how that pans out.

9) January '12 Citigroup Calls closed at $.29, down by 34.09% since my buy.  I am still very bullish on Citi, especially since it is now trading well below it's tangible book value.  Historically, this has been a great place to buy.  I am looking for all financials to pop after the European thing settles, and financial reform is passed which brings me to....


10)  GS.  I said a while back I would buy around the $136 level, and I am doing so today with 7 shares at $136.10.  This rounds out my ten slot portfolio, and I am interested to see how I weather the storm in the months ahead.

Overall, the portfolio is up by 2.47% (-2.47% for the DOW Dogs), versus -2.85% for the Wilshire 5000. The current basket of eight stocks that I am currently invested in, including dividends, is down 3.21% year-to-date. The spread between my performance and the overall market (Wilshire 5000) is at 5.32% outperform.

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