Monday, August 2, 2010

My Portfolio Is Beating The Market By Over 3%!

Today was a great day for the market.  If you were paying attention, you noticed that the market posted a better than 2% gain today!  If you've been reading this blog, you would know that I think we are primed for a sustained rally through at least the end of the year, and probably through 2012 as well.  I have been doing a lot of research lately, and all of the data I have looked at suggests that we are going to see a nice run.  Let's get into it...

The Wilshire 5000 closed at 11,735.70, up from 11,507.70, or 1.98%, since my post on 7/25/10.  The Wilshire 5000 has now re-crossed it's 200-day moving average as of today, closing 1.54% above the average.  This is a bullish sign, but I would like to see it maintain above that level for at least a few more days.

The Investor's Intelligence Survey was released on Thursday night. This week's reading was 38.2% BULLS, and 34.9% BEARS, for a spread of 3.3%. This is in comparison to a reading of 35.6% BULLS, and 35.6% BEARS, for a spread of 0.0% on July 20th.

The Volatility Index closed Friday at 22.01, down from 23.47 back on July 23rd.

Now for the portfolio...(updated for dividends)
1) Verizon at $29.56, down 3.26% for the year, inclusive of dividends.  FTR, the recent spinoff, recently closed at $7.71/share, worth $53.97 to this portfolio currently.

2) AT&T closed at $26.53, up 1.13% for the year, inclusive of dividends.

3) GE closed at $16.41, up by 9.10% for the year, inclusive of dividends.

4) TBT, the doubleshort U.S. Treasury ETF closed at $36.74, down by 15.84% since my buy.  I have decided to take the remaining cash in the portfolio and put it to work in this name.  I had roughly $675 in cash from gains that I took in the beginning of the year.  As such, I am buying another 18 shares of this ETF for the portfolio, bringing my current holdings to 38 shares, or $1,659.  I am overweight this name because I think the risk trade is going to be coming back on, and coming back on in a big way.  US Treasuries are near historic lows, and I simply believe they have run out of upside.  As such, I think being short T-Bills is a great place to park money for the foreseeable future. 

5) FXP, the doubleshort China ETF, closed at $33.90, down by 22.02% since my buy, and after a 1:5 reverse split.

6) GOOD closed at $17.03, up by 26.49% since my buy, including the reinvestment of dividends. 

7) NLY closed at $17.34, up by .67% since my buy, inclusive of a reinvested dividends

8) AAPL closed at $261.85 up by 35.15% since my buy. 

9) January '12 Citigroup Calls closed at $.23, down by 47.73% since my buy.  Still long-term bullish on Citi.

10)  GS closed at $152.74, up by 12.23% since my buy.

Overall, the portfolio is up by 5.29% (4.22% for the DOW Dogs), versus 2.07% for the Wilshire 5000. The current basket of ten stocks that I am currently invested in, including dividends, is down .75% year-to-date. The spread between my performance and the overall market (Wilshire 5000) is at 3.22% outperform.

Quickly before I go, I would like to give an update on the three names I recommended a week or so ago.  Since that time, the Wilshire 5000 is up .73%.  The three stocks I recommended are currently up 1.86%, beating the market by over 1.0%.  JNJ closed at $58.72, up 1.70%.  KMB closed at $65.13, up by 1.56%.  Finally, MRO closed at $34.28, up by 2.73%.

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