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I'm feeling rather productive lately, and I thought it would be a good idea to update you on the status of my portfolio. As I've stated in the last few posts, I have begun to raise cash into year end. While I think we are going to continue to melt up into the new year, I am beginning to believe that the data is pointing to the fact that we may see lower prices in the not-so-distant future. Make no mistake, I am very bullish on the market going forward. Very, very bullish. However, what goes up must come down...at least momentarily on occasion.
The Wilshire 5000 closed at 13,175.94, up from 13,009.05, or 1.28%, since Tuesday. The Wilshire 5000's 200-day moving average currently sits at 11,830.03, or 11.38% below Friday's close.
The Investor's Intelligence Survey was released on Thursday night. This week's reading was 56.2% BULLS, and 21.3% BEARS, for a spread of 34.9%. This is in comparison to a reading of 55.4% BULLS, and 21.8% BEARS, for a spread of 33.6% back on November 30th.
The Volatility Index closed Friday at 17.61, down from 17.99 on Tuesday.
Now for the portfolio...
1) Verizon at $34.04, up 11.07% for the year (please note, this is inconsistent with the percentage in my last post. Forgive me, but I had a formula error in my spreadsheet that incorrectly understated Verizon's performance to date), inclusive of dividends. FTR, the recent spinoff, recently closed at $9.37/share, worth $65.59 to this portfolio currently.
2) AT&T closed at $28.89, up 3.35% for the year, inclusive of dividends.
3) GE closed at $17.72, up by 16.97% for the year, inclusive of dividends.
4) TBT, the doubleshort U.S. Treasury ETF closed at $38.28, down 12.31% since my buy.
5) January 2012 DD $45/$55 CALL spreads purchased a few months back closed at $4.54, up 24.38% since my buy.
6) AAPL closed at $320.56 up by 65.45% since my buy.
7) January '12 Citigroup CALLs closed at $.15, down by 65.91% since my buy.
8) C closed at $4.78, up by 20.10% since my buy.
9) GS closed at $168.47, up by 23.78% since my buy.
Overall, the portfolio is up by 20.95% (12.62% for the DOW Dogs), versus 13.94% for the Wilshire 5000. The current basket of nine stocks and options that I am currently invested in, including dividends, is up 8.11% year-to-date. The spread between my performance and the overall market (Wilshire 5000) is at 7.01% outperform.
In the week or two ahead I am most likely going to start raising a bit more cash. As is now, I have roughly $2,400 in the portfolio in cash. With the upcoming pullback/correction I am forecasting, I believe I will most likely sell AAPL, VZ, T, and GE. I will most likely be buying some SPY PUTs with part of the cash, and leaving the remaining for a better entry point into some names, including new DOW Dogs. But, as I said before, I believe we will continue to melt higher into year end. How high we go and how quickly we go in the next two to four weeks will determine how hard and how far we fall after that.
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