The Wilshire 5000 closed at 11,698.90, up from 11,453.30, or 2.14%, since my last post. The Wilshire 5000's 200-day moving average currently sits at 11,592.67, or .92% below today's close. The Wilshire 5000 closed above it's 200-day for the first time since August 11th.
The Investor's Intelligence Survey was released on Thursday night. This week's reading was 33.3% BULLS, and 32.2% BEARS, for a spread of 1.1%. This is in comparison to a reading of 29.4% BULLS, and 37.7% BEARS, for a spread of -8.3% on August 31st. Sentiment has turned a bit higher since we saw the lowest reading of March 2009 in the prior week. Given how the market has been trading the last few days, I would say that we will see a higher BULL reading this week, as well as an increased spread. We'll find out Thursday night.
The Volatility Index closed Monday at 21.21, down from 23.25 back on September 8th.
Now for the portfolio...
1) Verizon at $30.90, up 1.13% for the year, inclusive of dividends. FTR, the recent spinoff, recently closed at $7.68/share, worth $53.76 to this portfolio currently.
2) AT&T closed at $26.90, up 2.52% for the year, inclusive of dividends.
3) GE closed at $16.25, up by 8.03% for the year, inclusive of dividends.
4) TBT, the doubleshort U.S. Treasury ETF closed at $33.14, down by 24.09% since my buy.
5) FXP, the doubleshort China ETF, closed at $33.93, down by 21.95% since my buy, and after a 1:5 reverse split.
6) December 18, 2010 SPY $102 Calls closed at $12.03, down 6.74% since I purchased them a few weeks back.
7) NLY closed at $17.87, up by 3.74% since my buy, inclusive of a reinvested dividends
8) AAPL closed at $267.04 up by 37.83% since my buy.
9) January '12 Citigroup Calls closed at $.15, down by 65.91% since my buy. Still long-term bullish on Citi, and I will reiterate this from now until January 2012.
10) GS closed at $154.37, up by 13.42% since my buy.
Overall, the portfolio is up by 2.61% (5.72% for the DOW Dogs), versus 1.75% for the Wilshire 5000. The current basket of ten stocks and options that I am currently invested in, including dividends, is down 5.89% year-to-date. The spread between my performance and the overall market (Wilshire 5000) is at .86% outderperform. A substantial portion of my performance is due to my Dow Dogs strategy. This strategy has consistently outperformed the market for me over the past 5 years, and I have no reason to suspect it won't do so for the next 40. In a future post I will detail the performance of the three additional Dow Dogs I recommended back on July 26th.
I stated in my last portfolio update that the market was due for a bounce. Since that post, the market is up over 2%. The market has been volatile, no doubt. Some people believe we are range bound. While that may be true short term, eventually we are going to break out of this range to the upside. Watch and see if we can get a few days close above the 1,140 level on the S&P, that will be the telling sign. For now, I think sentiment is negative enough, and there is enough money floating around to believe that we are poised for a move higher.
According to my post on June 20th, I believed then that the time to buy was on or around June 1st. On June 1st, the Wilshire 5000 closed at 11,184.70. As I stated before, the market is now at 11,698.90, up 4.59%. The market is only up 1.75% for the entire year. The talking heads would have you believe that the world fell off the edge during that period of time though. It's always important to keep things in perspective, watch the data, and pay attention to history.
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